2.6 Million? By the Numbers

According to an article in the Baraboo News Republic, visitation at Devil’s Lake State Park, “rose by about 30,000 from 2018 to 2019″ Steve Schmelzer, Devil’s Lake State Park superintendent, estimated about 2.6 million visitors came through the park last year.” (Read Article)

With that in mind, I knew there was another article out there from 2017 where the park reported 2.8 million as of October of that year and that being up from 2.6 the previous year. I found that article here. So that would suggest that visitor numbers have been declining, right?

Deep Dive

Well, thankfully, the Wisconsin DNR posts an annual Wisconsin State Park attendance report online. The current report gives estimated fiscal attendance from 2002 to 2018. Keep in mind that a fiscal report runs from July to July, and not January to December. Here’s what it says about Devil’s Lake’s State Park’s attendance recently…

2018 – 2.6 million (2,674,386)
2017 – 2.7 million (2,705,440)
2016 – 2.6 million (2,589,372)
2015 – 2.1 million (2,199,012)
2014 – 2 million (2,011,004)
2013 – 1.8 million (1,821,087)
2012 – 2.2 million (2,236,888)
2011 – 1.7 million (1,728,679)

Side Note: The only other parks running close are the Southern Unit of Kettle Moraine & Peninsula State Parks who both are reporting just over 1 million visitors.

Finding Numbers

So it actually looks like park numbers were in a downward trend since 2017 when we were pushing 3 million visitors. But, if we’re up 30,000 from 2018, we’re really around 2.7 million again. (Give or take.)

Market Sizing

But then, does this actually represent the number of visitors to the park each year? I wonder. Well, this question has to do with “market sizing”. A common example would be something like estimating the size of the vehicle fleet in a large city. To do this takes a lot of well-reasoned assumptions, observations and a lot of math. I have a friend who does this sort of stuff for a living. Not that I can understand any of it!! But, this is what I can observe…

Sticker Sales

The best I’ve been able to figure out by talking to a few folks is that the very specific numbers; 2,674,386 down to single digits, suggests either axel counters or sticker counting. Being at the park all of the time, I know there are no axel counters out there. So sticker sale numbers would be the only way to get that specific. But counting stickers alone can’t provide an accurate attendance count, and here’s why…

How Many Friends In Your Car?

To get into Devil’s Lake State Park you will need a daily pass, an annual pass, a national park pass, a bus pass or you can walk or ride your bike and need no pass at all. My first question would be, how many people does a sticker represent? How many people are in an average car? How many people were on each bus? You only need one sticker to represent lots of people! So however you counted stickers, the “attendance” or the actual number of bodies would be woefully underreported right?

But there’s more…

You Bought Your Sticker Elsewhere

What if I bought my Wisconsin State Park sticker online? Remember, they’re valid at all Wisconsin State Parks. What if I bought my sticker at another park? (Daily passes are cheaper at Mirror Lake State Park!) Then I don’t count. And then, of course, are the occasional National Park passes added to the mix because Devil’s Lake is part of the Federal Ice Age Trail.

You Came Back!

And here’s a big one; How many times a year did your family visit the park? Heck, I personally visit the park at least 5 days a week! So, if we’re only counting stickers, we’re only counting the driver as 1 person that only visits the park one time. So, what does 2.6 million actually mean?

Our Estimate

It’s pretty clear there are many ways Devil’s Lake State Park visitors are not counted. This is why we independently estimate park attendance has been over 3 million visitors since 2017. I feel that this is a reasonable assumption, given what we know and what we don’t.

Why it Matters

So here’s the thing, to keep the park beautiful, to provide a great park experience, you need money. You have to run hat-in-hand to the powers that be and beg for a proper budget. To fix trails and paint buildings, to staff camper registration offices, to pick up trash and keep the bathrooms clean takes a lot of money. Visitor numbers set the benchmark. Visitor numbers tell the state government not simply the popularity of the park, but the pressure the land, the wildlife and the yep, the staff are under. Visitor numbers also tell the community at large the impact and potential of their tourism industry.

Master Planning

When cars are parked along the roads and in the grass, it’s because there’s simply not enough room. When the bathrooms are getting smelly and there is garbage stacked in the corners, it’s because there are not enough staff. (And people don’t use the dumpsters!) When the trails are closed or in need of repair, it’s because they are not being budgeted for. When the paint is peeling on buildings, well, you get it! How can we “master plan” for the future when we don’t really know where we are today? How do we estimate for the future?

Bottom Line?

The bottom line, these estimates are low. We should get a better analysis before master planning starts, or we won’t even know what we’re talking about. And yup, this is just my silly opinion. One of the many weird things I think about while I’m sitting up at 3 in the morning. ;) I’m sure you’ll feel free to point out the flaws in my reasoning in the comments below.

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Friends Master Plan Meeting

The Friends of Devil’s Lake State Park will be holding one or more member’s only meetings in mid-February. One of the meetings will be held in at the City of Baraboo Municipal Building at 101 South Boulevard on (tentatively scheduled Wednesday, February 12, 2020 from 5:00-8:00 pm). The meetings will be for members to share information on the process of updating the future master plan of the area including Devil’s Lake State Park and to formulate recommendations the Friends will be making to the State at a later date on behalf of the Friends group. The meetings will focus on Devil’s Lake State Park and is meant to get feedback with regard to all aspects of the park including trail use, amenities, etc. We will send further details via email to our members. Learn More